Swine-Flu
Feb 18 2010
The National Pandemic Flu Service in England has now closed because of the sharp decline in cases of the H1N1 swine flu virus. From Thursday Feb 11th, anyone who needs medical help because of flu will be directed to their GP or NHS Direct. It will no longer be possible to access anti-viral drugs online or via a helpline. At its peak, 40,000 people a week received antivirals through the National Pandemic Flu Service, however this has now fallen to below 5,000 a week.
The second wave of the epidemic now would seem to have passed without catastrophic numbers of deaths and serious illnesses. Of the 90 Million doses of vaccine purchased by the Government, 85 Million remain unused. We are now coming to the end of the traditional peak "Flu-season", and further waves of infection in the next few months are not anticipated. This is not to say that H1N1 "Swine-flu" has gone away, sadly it will be with us for years to come, in the background as part of the mix of viruses causing the annual "Seasonal flu".
Inevitably the question of whether or not the Government over-reacted will be picked over for years. However at the time that decisions had to be made rergarding supplies of drugs and vaccines, there was no way of knowing that this was going to be a mild illness, not the catastrophic Pandemic so long feared.
Probably the biggest risk from Pig-flu, is that we become complacent. Next time (and there will be a next time) we must react in the same way and commit to a population-scale vaccine and treatment programme. Otherwise, by the time we find out that this time it is not a mild illness, it will be much too late. It is worth remembering that at the time that the decisions had to be made in 2009, hundreds of people had just died in Mexico. |
